Choice adaptation to increasing and decreasing event probabilities.

Abstract

A constant element of our modern environment is change. In\ndecision-making research however, very little is known about\nhow people make choices in dynamic environments. We\nreport the results of an experiment where participants were\nasked to choose between two options: a dynamic and risky\noption that resulted in either a high or a low outcome, and a\nstationary and safe option that resulted in a medium outcome.\nThe probability of the high outcome in the risky option\ndecreased or increased linearly over the course of the task\nwhile the probability of the medium outcome stayed the same\nthroughout. We find that adaptation to change is related to the\ndirection of that change, and that the way people adapt to\nchanging probabilities relates to their willingness to explore\navailable options. A cognitive model based on Instance-Based\nLearning Theory reproduces the behavioral patterns.

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