Reversing the U: New Evidence on the Internet and Democracy Relationship

Abstract

The relationship between the Internet and democratic developments has long been a controversial topic, hampered in part by the lack of empirical evidence. So this study is undertaken to investigate the effects of Internet penetration on democratization based on the panel data of 125 countries gathered from 1993 to 2014. The authors apply machine-learning method (i.e., random forest) to effectively screen the variables that are more closely related to democracy. The results of different estimation models reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between Internet penetration and democratization and also distinguish the impacts of the Internet on advanced and less advanced democracies. Then, we arrive at the conclusion that Internet penetration brings a late-starting advantage in the development of democracy for less advanced democracies. These conclusions are further confirmed by the robust test.

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