Mare Liberum: Aquino, Duterte, and The Philippines’ Evolving Lawfare Strategy in the South China Sea

Abstract

The article analyzes the rationale, context, and implications of the Philippines’ landmark arbitration case in the South China Sea. Specifically, it evaluates four important and inter‐related issues: (i) the centrality of international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, to the peaceful management and, if possible, resolution of the South China Sea disputes; (ii) political and strategic factors, which convinced the Aquino administration to embark on a risky and uncertain legal warfare (lawfare) strategy against Beijing, which, in turn, vehemently opposed any third party arbitration vis‐à‐vis maritime and territorial disputes; (iii) the merits, outcome, and strategic implications of the Southeast Asian country's arbitration case on the broader geopolitical landscape in the region; and lastly, the divergent South China Sea strategy of the Duterte administration, which decided to soft‐pedal and sublimate the arbitral tribunal award in favor of a dialogue‐based resolution of the disputes.

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