The Potential of Tax Surprises to Affect Measures of Tax Avoidance and Researchers' Inferences

Abstract

ABSTRACT While not explicitly stated, many tax avoidance studies seek to investigate tax avoidance that is the result of firms' deliberate actions. However, measures of firms' tax avoidance can also be affected by factors outside the firms' control—tax surprises. This study examines potential complications caused by tax surprises when measuring tax avoidance by focusing on one specific type of surprise tax savings—the unanticipated tax benefit from employees' exercise of stock options. Because the cash effective tax rate (ETR) includes the benefits of this tax surprise, the cash ETR mismeasures firms' deliberate tax avoidance. The analyses conducted show this mismeasurement is material and can lead to both Type I and Type II errors in studies of deliberate tax avoidance. Suggestions to aid researchers in mitigating these concerns are also provided.

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