Electoral Volatility in Latin America

Abstract

Using an original database of legislative and presidential electoral results from the democratic transitions of the 1970s and 1980s to the present day, we provide a new assessment of electoral volatility in Latin America. Following a model established in studies of other regions, we decompose volatility into two subtypes: party replacement and stable party volatility. We demonstrate the relevance of this approach to Latin America and, further, document that volatility has persisted rather than waned in Latin America’s posttransition period largely because of party replacement. We then examine the contested link between economic performance and volatility and document temporal instability in this relationship: our analysis affirms previous conclusions regarding a connection in the 1980s in Latin America but uncovers scant evidence of a relationship between the economy and volatility for the 1990s to present day.

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