Obsolescence prediction: a Bayesian model

Abstract

It is critical for systems or products to deal with obsolescence and diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages (DMSMS) of their parts. Any obsolescence or DMSMS may become a show-stopper impacting the global system. This paper proposes a model of the propagation of obsolescence/DMSMS throughout the system. It is established upon on the system architecture, where the dependencies (functional or structural) among system components are analyzed. Gathering the data from the market, the model predicts the impact of an obsolescence/DMSMS considering the uncertainties, which are further quantified by mitigation costs and delay. The paper presents the application in a study case originated from the car industry.

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