The Effects of Tax Changes at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

Wataru Miyamoto · Thuy Lan Nguyen · Dmitriy Sergeyev

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic and Fiscal Studies Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

Abstract

We use the narrative approach to identify tax changes unrelated to current economic conditions and estimate the effects of these changes on macroeconomic variables during and outside of the zero lower bound period in Japan. We find little difference in the output responses across the two periods. However, the responses of aggregate consumption, investment, and imports are significantly different in the two periods within the first few quarters.

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References

2005Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections 2010The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks 2007Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?1990Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium 2013The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States 2011Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?2014EXPANSIONARY AUSTERITY? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE 2012Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks

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