BACKGROUND: Participation in sport is very popular for young children. Many children participate in entry-level modified sports programs. These programs are modified to match the developmental capacity of children and are aimed at development of fundamental motor skills and sport-specific skills, rather than competition. There is limited research on the longitudinal tracking of children in these programs and into club-based competition. Research suggests that most children drop-out of the sport and do not transition into club-based competition. Furthermore, more females than males drop-out of sport. The aim of this study is to investigate longitudinally, the patterns and demographic predictors of children's transition from modified sport programs to club sport competition for females. METHODS: This study analysed sport participation for females in a popular Australian, predominantly female, sport. Players of the modified sports program were followed over 4 years to determine their pattern of transition: transition to junior player status, withdraw from the sport, or continue in the modified program. Pattern of transition was compared across age (4-10), geographical region (metropolitan/non-metropolitan) and socio-economic status (SES). Logistic regression was used to model the effect of the three factors on the likelihood of transition. RESULTS: A total of 13,760 female children (aged 4-10) participated in the modified sport in the first year. The majority (59%) transitioned from the modified sport program and into club competition. However the rate of transition varied with age, residential location and socio-economic status, and there was an interaction between region and SES, with SES having a significant influence on transition in the metropolitan region. The peak sport entry age with the highest rates of transition was 7-9 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that whilst the majority of female participants continued participantion and tranisitioned from the modified sport program and into club competition, the strongest correlate of transition was age of entry, with transition rate peaking among those who commenced at age 7-9 years. It is recommended that, in order to maximise continued participation, sport policy and strategic developments should consider the possibility that targeting the very young is not the optimum recruitment strategy for fostering continued sport participation.
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