Impact of Exchange Rate Deregulation on manufacturing Sector Performance in Nigeria

Abstract

The study examined the impact of exchange rate deregulation on manufacturing output performance in Nigeria over the period 1980 to 2016. The normalized co-integration technique was used to test for long-run relationship between exchange rate and manufacturing output while the granger causality test was used to ascertain the direction of causality between them. Also, the error correction mechanism (ECM) was used to calculate the speed of adjustment of the model to short-run disequilibrium condition. The empirical findings revealed that exchange rate has non-significant positive long-run effect on manufacturing industry output. However, unidirectional causal impact of exchange rate on manufacturing output was established using the pairwise granger causality test. Based on the above result, it is recommended that in discharging the mandate of exchange rate management, the monetary authorities should aim at stabilizing exchange rate through the use of appropriate monetary policy tools as well as support export diversification programmes in order to enhance foreign exchange inflow.

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