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Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management
16 references·2 citing·39 second hop
Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management (2018)Eliciting improved quantitative judgement…Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction (2016)Superforecasting: the art and…Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in…Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)Thinking, Fast and SlowHow social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect (2011)How social influence can unde…A literature review of the anchoring effect (2010)A literature review of the an…Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006)Uncertain Judgements: Eliciti…Risk Perception and Affect (2006)Risk Perception and AffectAnother look at measures of forecast accuracy (2006)Another look at measures of f…The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations (2004)The wisdom of crowds: why the…Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk‐Assessment Battlefield (1999)Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics…Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises (1998)Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquito…Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science (1992)Experts in uncertainty: opini…How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” (1991)How to Make Cognitive Illusio…Uncertainty (1990)UncertaintyAvailability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1982)Availability: A heuristic for…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures (2021)Mathematically aggregating ex…Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols (2019)Improving expert forecasts in…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (1957)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1963)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)A manifesto for reproducible science (2017)Fake News Detection on Social Media (2017)Beyond valence: Toward a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice (2000)Risk as feelings. (2001)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability. (2008)Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test (2012)Does heightening risk appraisals change people’s intentions and behavior? A meta-analysis of experimental studies. (2013)The Death of Nature: Women, Ecology, and the Scientific Revolution (1982)Perception of Risk (1987)The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits (2000)Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism (2003)Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet) (2006)Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world (2015)Learning and foreign policy: sweeping a conceptual minefield (1994)Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications (2002)COVID-19 and vaccine hesitancy: A longitudinal study (2021)Benefits, Adoption Barriers and Myths of Open Data and Open Government (2012)Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment (2019)Delphi Technique in Health Sciences: A Map (2020)Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R (2008)Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward (2018)Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions (2020)Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis (2012)Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow (2016)Dual-Process Theories of Higher Cognition (2013)Managerial cognitive capabilities and the microfoundations of dynamic capabilities (2014)Lazy, not biased: Susceptibility to partisan fake news is better explained by lack of reasoning than by motivated reasoning (2018)Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged: Twenty Years of Process1 (1995)Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods (2002)
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References

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  • 1998Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises7,230 cited
  • 2006Another look at measures of forecast accuracy5,736 cited
  • 2004The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations2,925 cited
  • 1999Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk‐Assessment Battlefield1,896 cited
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  • 1992Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science1,129 cited
  • 2011How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect1,017 cited
  • 2016Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction919 cited

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  • 2012Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science831 cited
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    • 2021Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures39 cited
    • 2019Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols38 cited