ACTIVITY-BASED TRAVEL FORECASTING: WHAT ARE SOME ISSUES?

Abstract

Models for activity-based travel forecasting methods are increasingly developed by researchers mainly in Europe and the United States in support of policy actions that cannot be addressed by existing modeling methods and forecasting applications. Since the 1980s, when activity methods were considered as predominantly esoteric research approaches with very few applications, significant progress has been made in the three areas of data collection, modeling, and simulation that are the subject of this conference. In this paper a brief review of some issues that need to be addressed in the short and long terms are presented. Past unresolved forecasting issues and the policy context in the U.S., with an example from a program announced recently by the U.S. DOT, are first provided. The paper continues with the basic definitions underlying activity-based forecasting methods and models and a brief description of accumulated evidence-knowledge that is found in the literature today. Specific issues for which some exploratory research is needed are also outlined. These issues are further developed and artificially categorized into short-term (in need of immediate answers and provision of evidence) and long-term issues that are presented as a straw man strategic plan for a successful activity-based travel forecasting system that could become the standard practice in the U.S. Specific issues to be targeted by the workshops in the conference are provided last.

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