The Bus Delay Time Prediction Using Markov Chain

Seunghun Lee · Byeongsup Moon · Bumjin Park

4 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Traffic control and management Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

Bus delay time is occurred as the result of traffic condition and important factor to predict bus arrival time. In this paper, transition probability matrixes between bus stops are made by using Markov Chain and it is predicted bus delay time with them. As the results of study, it is confirmed a possibility of adapting the assumption which it has same bus transition probability between stops through paired-samples T-test and overcame the limitation of exiting studies in case there is no scheduled bus arrival time for each stops with using bus interval time. Therefore it will be possible to predict bus arrival time with Markov Chain.

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