Population and mortality profile in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2006–2035

Saeide Aghamohamadi · Kamran Hajinabi · Katayoun Jahangiri · Iravan Masoudi Asl · Reza Dehnavieh

27 citations0/0 files storedEastern Mediterranean Health Journal

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Healthcare Systems and Public Health Global Health and Epidemiology

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures. AIMS: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical-descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee-Carter model. RESULTS: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control.

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2006Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 2005Counting the dead and what they died from: an assessment of the global status of cause of death data.2012World Population Prospects 2006World Population Aging 2006Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions 2001Mortality, Income, and Income Inequality Over Time in Britain and the United States 2004Mortality, Income, and Income Inequality over Time in Britain and the United States

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