Long-term serial position effects in cue-based inference

Abstract

An important theoretical question in decision making concerns the nature of cue-generation: What mechanism drives the generation of cues used to make inferences? Most models of decision making assume that the properties of cues, often cue validity, initiate a set of dynamic pre-decision processes. In two studies, we test how memory accessibility affects cue use by manipulating both ecological cue validity and cue accessibility in a stock-forecasting task. Cue accessibility was manipulated by the pattern of accurate cue discriminations within experiment blocks of the learning phase of the experiments. Specifically, we manipulated the serial positions in which the cues accurately discriminated while holding overall cue validity constant. At test, participants preferred cues that discriminated early in the learning phase-a kind of primacy effect. The findings suggest that cue use is influenced by memory retrieval mechanisms and that cue use is not solely determined by cue validity. The results have implications for the development of computational models of heuristic decision-making.

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