On the validity of statistical tests of the graduation of a mortality table

Abstract

An important part of the work of an actuary consists in making and testing graduations of mortality statistics. Much space has been devoted in the Journal to methods of graduation, but for many years, apart from the recent paper by H. L. Seal (J.I.A. Vol. lxxi, p. 5), little attention seems to have been paid to the testing of graduations. Although statistical methods are usually employed in making the tests, consideration has not often been given to ascertaining whether mortality statistics fulfil the conditions necessary for the tests to be strictly applicable. It is the purpose of this paper to set out some investigations into this question. Such matters may be thought to be of only theoretical interest, since, in practice, the tests work satisfactorily as a general rule; but actuaries should not employ their tools in a mechanical fashion without realizing fully their limitations and implications, and the question therefore takes on a practical as well as a theoretical aspect. It is hoped that this paper will show how far the tests of a graduation are satisfactory in theory and practice and indicate where modifications are required.

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