Seasonal and business cycles of U.S. employment

Menelik Geremew · François Gourio

22 citations0/0 files storedEconomic Perspectives

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Forecasting Techniques and Applications Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

Notes: Panel A plots Hodrick-Prescott-filtered (HP-filtered) nonseasonally adjusted log national employment data (blue line) and HP-filtered seasonally adjusted log national employment data (black line).The shaded areas in panel A indicate official periods of recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Panel B plots the point estimates of the monthly dummy coefficients (β k ) from equation 1 (asterisks) for employment, together with plus and minus two-standard-error bands (vertical lines that run through the asterisks).See the text for further details.

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References

1989The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle 1992Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?n.d.Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series 1999The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment 1997Interactions Between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories

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