Estimating economic impacts of the US-South Korea free trade agreement

Abstract

We analyze the economic impacts of the United States-South Korea Free Trade Agreement by applying the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model to highly disaggregated commodity flow data. The analysis calculates the impacts in terms of welfare effects, national economic indicators (such as GDP), and business performance metrics (such as sales revenue), which can be used by a variety of decision-makers. Our results suggest several trade-offs among these measures. Positive welfare gains between the US and South Korea are about the same in absolute terms, but favor the latter in relative terms, and very heavily so for GDP gains. Moreover, the US is projected to incur a loss of gross output (sales revenue) in several major manufacturing sectors that are heavily concentrated in geographic areas that have been promised a return of jobs by the Trump Administration.

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