The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908

Christina Romer

279 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Political Economy

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Historical Economic and Social Studies Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

Traditional estimates of prewar GNP exaggerate the size of cycles because they are based on the assumption that GNP moves approximately one for one with commodity output valued in producer prices. This paper derives new estimates of GNP for 1869-1908 using an estimate of the actual relationship between GNP and commodity output. This estimated relationship is allowed to be time-varying and is derived from a regression covering the periods 1909-28 and 1947-85. The new estimates of GNP indicate that there has been much less stabilization between the prewar and postwar eras than is conventionally believed.

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References

1982Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867-1975

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