The Effect of Analysts' Disaggregated Forecasts on Investors and Managers: Evidence Using Pre-Tax Forecasts

Abstract

ABSTRACT I examine whether analysts' tax forecasts are informative to investors and whether analysts' tax forecasts impact firm behavior. Using I/B/E/S data from 2002–2014, I find that investors utilize both analysts' pre- and after-tax earnings forecasts in evaluating firm performance, indicating analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant. Furthermore, evidence that investors discount earnings management through the income tax expense is limited to firms with tax forecast coverage. In examining the impact of analysts' tax forecasts on firm behavior, I find analysts' tax forecast coverage is positively associated with quantitative and qualitative tax footnote disclosure. The results suggest that analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant and that analysts' tax coverage impacts firm decisions related to the income tax expense account. This evidence informs academics and practitioners as to the role of analysts' tax forecasts.

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