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The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
16 references·16 citing·48 second hopsampled
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Evidence from Germany and the United States (2003)How Stable is the Predictive …Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices (2001)Forecasting Output and Inflat…The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth (1998)The Predictive Content of the…The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank (1997)The predictive power of the t…Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth in EU countries? 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References

  • 1991The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity1,739 cited
  • 2005Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis870 cited
  • 1991Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy844 cited
  • 1988The real term structure and consumption growth703 cited
  • 1997The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank537 cited
  • 2001Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices478 cited
  • 1989Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets424 cited
  • 2009International capital flows and U.S. interest rates399 cited
  • 1994International term structures and real economic growth358 cited
  • 2003How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States348 cited
  • 2006The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions223 cited
  • 1996Predicting Real Growth Using the Yield Curve206 cited
  • 1991The Term Structure and World Economic Growth191 cited
  • 1997Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth in EU countries?155 cited
  • 2009Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?

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154 cited
  • 1998The Predictive Content of the Interest Rate Term Spread for Future Economic Growth145 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2020A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country: The case of Lebanon63 cited
    • 2014Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework59 cited
    • 2014On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth48 cited
    • 2008The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Frequently Asked Questions36 cited
    • 2012Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators29 cited
    • 2014Financial variables and economic activity in the Nordic countries20 cited
    • 2018Time-varying predictive content of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7 countries16 cited
    • 2021When and why do stock and bond markets predict US economic growth?15 cited
    • 2012GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH PREDICTIONS THROUGH THE YIELD SPREAD: TIME‐VARIATION AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS15 cited
    • 2011The South African yield curve as a predictor of economic downturns: an update14 cited
    • 2018Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: the Role of Decomposed Term Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty14 cited
    • 2012Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case13 cited
    • 2014Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis12 cited
    • 2013Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis11 cited
    • 2016Term spread, inflation and economic growth in emerging markets: evidence from Malaysia11 cited
    • 2018The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach11 cited