A new approach to probabilistic lava flow hazard assessments, applied to the Idaho National Laboratory, eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA

Abstract

We present a new probabilistic lava flow hazard assessment for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (INL) nuclear facility that (1) explores the way eruptions are defined and modeled, (2) stochastically samples lava flow parameters from observed values for use in MOLASSES, a lava flow simulator, (3) calculates the likelihood of a new vent opening within the boundaries of INL, (4) determines probabilities of lava flow inundation for INL through Monte Carlo simulation, and (5) couples inundation probabilities with recurrence rates to determine the annual likelihood of lava flow inundation for INL. Results show a 30% probability of partial inundation of the INL given an effusive eruption on the eastern Snake River Plain, with an annual inundation probability of 8.4 × 10−5 to 1.8 × 10−4. An annual probability of 6.2 × 10−5 to 1.2 × 10−4 is estimated for the opening of a new eruptive center within INL boundaries.

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