Adapted fuzzy fault tree analysis for oil storage tank fire

Abstract

Crude oil tank fire and explosion (COTFE) is one of the main risks to the occupational safety of oil storage tanks. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of COTFE, this article proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) combined with experts’ interview. In this methodology, diverse probable causes of the COTFE are identified and a COTFE fault tree is constructed. To overcome the inconvenience from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events (BEs), a fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each BE is treated as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for combining the different opinions of experts is also introduced in this article to reduce the error during the aggregation process. An in-depth quantitative analysis of the FFT, namely structure importance and Fusselle Vesely importance for BEs and the minimum cut sets importance, is given to assess the COTFE risk and obtain more details about the fault tree. A case study and analysis are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, in addition to a comparison with an in-literature case study using an established FFTA. Some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance, to avoid COTFE accidents and assist in setting priorities at improving safety procedures.

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