Essays in Risk Taking, Belief Formation, and Self-Deception

Abstract

In this dissertation, I examine changes in risk-taking behavior, beliefs, and self-deception induced by changes in policy and behavior. Specifically, Chapter II examines player performance and risk-taking behavior in tournament environments which include eliminations in the middle of the tournament. I find that when players face elimination, they perform better and take risks more often. In addition, when facing elimination, players are more likely to have those risks pay off. Turning to the interaction between public policy and personal beliefs, Chapter III explores how public policy affects beliefs in the context of same-sex marriage. Exploiting the timing of the legalization of same-sex marriage, I find that legalization induces an increase in the proportion of people who have strong beliefs on same-sex marriage. I also find a substantial increase in measured state-level polarization due to legalization. Finally, Chapter IV presents the results of an experiment designed to uncover how self-confidence and self-deception change after performing dishonest behavior. In an online experimental laboratory, participants who cheated have higher confidence in their ability even when the opportunity to cheat is not present. In addition, participants who cheated, and were rewarded for cheating with a high reward, had higher beliefs in their ability. This dissertation includes unpublished co-authored material.

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