Assessing the impact of performance determinants in complex MTO/ETO supply chains through an extended hybrid modelling approach

Abstract

In make-to-order (MTO)/engineer-to-order (ETO) business environments multiple customer-oriented projects compete for and share resources through interdependent engineering and production activities. Deep knowledge of critical dimensions that affect performance is key in this context. For this, we propose a set of determinants – workload, complexity, outsourcing, design reuse, project type, and knowledge/experience with technology, that impact performance. These determinants are input to an extended hybrid simulation model using system dynamics (SD), discrete event simulation (DES) and agent-based simulation (ABS) that tackles the needs imposed by activities of very different nature, as the project development and manufacturing/assembly operations. The hybrid model is applied to the case of an advanced manufacturing company. Through Monte Carlo sampling, the influence of different combinations of determinants in the performance variability is assessed. A correlation analysis shows evidence of association between all performance determinants and the project time and cost, while no evidence of association between the design reuse and project type determinants and the manufacturing and assembly time.

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