Reliability assessment of the South African wind load design formulation

Abstract

The representation of the strong wind climate and the reliability calibration of wind loading are the main components of the provisions for local conditions in the South African wind load standard. The reliability implications of new probability models for wind load and an updated map of the characteristic wind speed are assessed in this paper. Wind load probability distributions are based on a combination of new models for free-field wind pressure, pressure coefficients and terrain factors with existing information. The results from both assessments show that the wind load partial factor of 1.3 does not result in adequate reliability performance for typical design situations. A partial factor of 1.6 is recommended. Where an increased partial factor for wind loading will result in a corresponding increase in the design wind load, the introduction of an updated map of the characteristic wind speed for South Africa is shown to result in an overall reduction of wind load. Regional analysis, however, indicates that there are regions in the Western and Eastern Cape that will have increased design wind loads. Combined with an updated partial factor of 1.6, the aggregate increase in design wind loads across South Africa is shown to be 11%. Keywords: wind loading code, probabalistic models, reliability assessment, partial factor calibration

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