Advances in mortality forecasting: introduction

Abstract

Mortality forecasts are essential for predicting the future extent of population ageing, and for determining the sustainability of pension schemes and social security systems. They are also useful in setting life insurance premiums, and in helping governments plan for the changing needs of their societies for health care and other services (European Commission 2009). Nowadays, the societal importance of accurate mortality forecasts is greater than ever before. As a strategy for dealing with rapid population ageing, recent pension reforms in a number of low-mortality countries have made an explicit link between the retirement age and/or retirement payments and past and future anticipated mortality and life expectancy values (Carone et al. 2016; OECD 2016). Because of the large and increasing societal relevance of accurate mortality forecasts, the field of mortality forecasting is growing and advancing.

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