Evaluating the carrying capacity at the archaeological site of Jerash (Gerasa) using mathematical GIS modeling

Abstract

The carrying capacity represents an important module in tourism planning; it is one of the mechanisms for establishing standards for sustainable tourism and cultural heritage preservation. This study evaluates the carrying capacity at the site of Jerash (Gerasa), one of the Decapolis cities in Jordan. The methods of the study include mathematical modeling for evaluating the carrying capacity that was modified after Boullon (1985) within an ArcGIS 10.2 environment. The results show that the carrying capacity at the site of Gerasa is currently manifesting a serious issue, where the excessive number of tourists and Festival attendants put its archaeology in danger. The results also stress on the need for adopting intra-site variation in evaluating the physical carrying capacity. Accordingly, there is a need for further collaborations among decision makers, stakeholders, tour operators and the local community.

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