Dashing Hopes? the Predictive Accuracy of Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment by Police

Emily Turner · Emily Turner · Juanjo Medina · Gavin Brown B

78 citations0/0 files storedThe British Journal of Criminology

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Intimate Partner and Family Violence Criminal Justice and Penology Crime Patterns and Interventions

Abstract

Abstract The Domestic Abuse, Stalking and Honour Based Violence (DASH) form is a standardized risk assessment implemented across most UK police forces. It is intended to facilitate an officer’s structured professional judgment about the risk a victim faces of serious harm at the hand of their abuser. Until now, it has been an open question whether this tool works in practice. Here, we present the largest scale European study, making the case that the risk assessment tool is underperforming. Each element of the DASH questionnaire is, at best, weakly predictive of revictimization. Officer risk predictions based on DASH are little better than random and a logistic regression model that predicts the same outcome using DASH only provides modest improvement in performance.

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References

2016Equality of Opportunity in Supervised Learning 2017Fair Prediction with Disparate Impact: A Study of Bias in Recidivism Prediction Instruments 1994Parametric measures of effect size.2015Certifying and Removing Disparate Impact 2018The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism 2018Fairness in Criminal Justice Risk Assessments: The State of the Art 1995The Handbook of Research Synthesis 2008The Danger Assessment

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