Articlediamond2018

Applicability of Scoring Models in Firms' Default Prediction. The Case of Slovakia

16 citations0/0 files storedPolitická ekonomie

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Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction Corporate Insolvency and Governance Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Bankruptcy prediction has long been regarded as a critical topic within the academic and banking community. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study in the Slovak Republic has attempted to develop a bankruptcy prediction model putting together statistical and artificial intelligence approaches performed on a such an amount of data. This paper seeks to fill this gap. Our aim is to develop a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model using a genetic algorithm in the process of training a neural network (GA-NN). The research data set comprises a balanced sample of both healthy and bankrupt firms operating in Slovakia in the period from 2014 to 2017. Financial information regarding a firm's financial situation are acquired from the Finstat database, which stores annual reports. For the purpose of comparing the classification accuracy of the proposed GA-NN model, two more models are constructed, namely BP-NN (back-propagation neural network model) as well as MDA (multiple discrimination model). The results gained by utilizing these models suggest the superiority of the developed GA-NN model to both BP-NN and MDA models in terms of prediction performance.

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References

1968FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY 1980Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy 1990A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction 2013Genetic algorithm-based heuristic for feature selection in credit risk assessment 2016Ensemble boosted trees with synthetic features generation in application to bankruptcy prediction 2016Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study 2013Predicting financial distress and corporate failure: A review from the state-of-the-art definitions, modeling, sampling, and featuring approaches 2002A genetic algorithm application in bankruptcy prediction modeling

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2023Predicting bankruptcy using artificial intelligence: The case of the engineering industry 2023Artificial neural network and decision tree-based modelling of non-prosperity of companies 2020Comparison of the Results of a Data Envelopment Analysis Model and Logit Model in Assessing Business Financial Health 2021Altman Model Verification Using a Multi-Criteria Approach for Slovakian Agricultural Enterprises

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