Quantitative Risk Analysis Detailed Study of Thermal and Overpressure Risks Case Study

Abstract

Oil and gas companies generate high levels of risks because they process and store large quantities of flammable, explosive and toxic liquids and gaseous products.Actually, no country is immune to disasters related to the industrial installations of oil and gas complexes where several tragic experiences have caused significant human, material and environmental losses.Therefore, the importance of the rigorous monitoring of management procedures and the strict observance of industrial safety measures are required to ensure not only the reliability of the facilities themselves but also to protect the human resources.Locally, the catastrophic explosion of the liquefaction complex of Skikda in January 2004 caused 27 fatalities and 73 injuries and revealed many weaknesses in the risk prevention within Sonatrach.In order to master these phenomena several techniques and mathematical models of risk prediction have been developed.Among these methods, we find the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), which is the objective of our work, whose objective is to evaluate the probability of damage caused by a potential accident.This method, initially developed in the field of transport and nuclear power, has been progressively adapted to the process industry, particularly in northern European countries for Seveso type installations.In this work, we are interested in the application of the QRA method to the LPG industrial zone located in Constantine, Algeria.The objective is the study of undesired events, their frequencies and their effects, including the probability of fatality or injury by thermal effect (1 st degree burn, 2 nd degree burn, deaths) and by overpressure (lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, whole-body displacement impact, building collapse, major structural damage, minor damages, breakage of window panes).The purpose is to estimate the individual risks and the societal risk, and to apply the measures that suitably deal with these estimates.

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