Tourism development and economic growth: an asymmetric panel causality test

Abstract

This study analyzes the asymmetric causality between tourism development and economic growth for the period 1995–2016 in 9 emerging countries. Kónya [2006. Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Econometric Modelling, 23(6), 978–992] panel causality test results indicate that there is no causality between tourism development and economic growth. However, the asymmetric panel causality test, which examines hidden causality between variables, shows that there is causality from the positive shocks of tourism development to the positive shocks of economic growth in Argentina and Turkey. In terms of negative shocks, causality is determined only for the Philippines from tourism development to economic growth. These results denote that the hidden tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid in Argentina, Turkey, and the Philippines.

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