Unstable Majorities: Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemate

Abstract

Everyday claims that the United States is descending into a culture war of two polarized and irreconcilable parties deserve more scrutiny. Morris P. Fiorina has been at the forefront of assessing and pushing back against this view, especially the blame placed on the American public. Unstable Majorities goes beyond this important myth busting to offer an explanation for contemporary paralysis: many Americans have sorted into two minority parties with distinct issue positions, but both sides have empowered their officials to overreach in office, losing the support of independents in subsequent elections and thus having to share and alternate power. Extending his prior work, Fiorina shows that the proportion of the American public identifying as moderates is stable, the proportion identifying as independents continues to rise, and the proportion with moderate opinions on issues such as abortion is high and stable. Few Americans are ensconced in partisan media and geographic bubbles, and those in the middle do not feel represented by either party. Yet Fiorina acknowledges trends that others call polarization: Republicans and Democrats are now more likely to share their party’s side in policy disputes and ideological self-identifications; citizens now see differences between the parties and view elections as consequential; the parties are becoming more socially homogenous; partisans in each camp now dislike the other party more; and those most active in politics are polarizing the most.

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