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A shift-share based tool for assessing the contribution of a modal shift to the decarbonisation of inland freight transport

Olaf Jonkeren · Jan Francke · Jelle Visser

55 citations0/0 files storedEuropean Transport Research Review

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transportation and logistics systems Environmental Impact and Sustainability Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

Abstract

Resulting from the 21st UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris in 2015, the European Union’s (EU) current climate and energy objective is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, and transportation must play a vital role in achieving this target. Decarbonization is therefore one of the main challenges for the freight transport sector in Europe. Several measures are suggested to contribute to this goal, including clean vehicle technologies, optimising networks and modal shift. This paper focuses on the latter measure; specifically, we reveal the value of shift-share analysis as a method for assessing a freight modal shift’s contribution to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission reduction. The shift-share method is in fact a decomposition analysis that originated in the field of regional economics. However, it can also be applied in other fields, including transport economics. We have exploited this method’s broad applicability to develop a tool that can evaluate how rail and inland waterway transport perform in terms of their contributions to CO 2 emission reduction due to a modal shift. In demonstrating the tool, we analyse the market for freight transport that has the Netherlands as an origin, destination or both, thereby distinguishing between five distance markets. The goal of this paper is to present and show the value of the tool. The tool can provide policy makers with background information about the changes in CO 2 emissions of a freight transport modal shift that occurred in the past, which in turn can be helpful in devising future transport policies. A particular strength of the tool is that it can be used on any spatial scale - countries, regions, corridors, etc. In addition, the data requirements and computing complexity of the shift-share method is low.

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References

2011Modelling Transport 1960A STATISTICAL AND ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE FOR REGIONAL ANALYSIS 2003Is a new applied transportation research field emerging?––A review of intermodal rail–truck freight transport literature 2018Decarbonizing intraregional freight systems with a focus on modal shift 2007Assessment of a transport policy potential for intermodal mode shift on a European scale 2010A decision analysis framework for intermodal transport: Comparing fuel price increases and the internalisation of external costs 2009Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area 2017Road and intermodal transport performance: the impact of operational costs and air pollution external costs

Cited by

2023A system dynamics model for analyzing modal shift policies towards decarbonization in freight transportation 2024Sustainable development of inland waterways transport: a review 2020Crossing Borders and Expanding Modal Shift Measures: Effects on Mode Choice and Emissions from Freight Transport in the Nordics 2019Minimising energy consumption and environmental burden of freight transport using a novel graphical decision-making tool

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