Article2019

Quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline in an underground utility tunnel

Weipeng Fang · Jiansong Wu · Yiping Bai · Laobing Zhang · Genserik Reniers

64 citations0/0 files storedProcess Safety Progress

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Risk and Safety Analysis Structural Integrity and Reliability Analysis Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis

Abstract

With rapid urbanization in China, many underground utility tunnels have been established these years. This huge underground construction facilitates city life, but may introduce societal risks due to the installation of high‐risk pipelines. Natural gas pipelines have the potential to cause catastrophic accident if a gas leakage and a subsequent explosion occurs. The potential hazards in the gas compartments of a utility tunnel are quite different from those in conventional directly buried gas pipelines. This study developed a dynamic quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipelines in a utility tunnel. First, potential accident scenarios of natural gas pipelines situated in a utility tunnel were identified and implemented in a Bow‐tie diagram based on case studies of typical gas pipeline accidents and expert experience. Then, a Bayesian network was established from the Bow‐tie diagram using a mapping algorithm. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the results of probability updating and sensitivity analysis, critical influencing factors were identified. The proposed framework provides a predictive analysis of the gas pipeline accident evolution process from causes to consequences and examines key challenges in gas pipeline risk management in utility tunnels. © 2019 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog: e12051 2019

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References

2011Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches 2012Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network 2012Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach 2016Quantitative risk analysis on leakage failure of submarine oil and gas pipelines using Bayesian network 2016Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network 2010Fault and Event Tree Analyses for Process Systems Risk Analysis: Uncertainty Handling Formulations 2017Probabilistic analysis of natural gas pipeline network accident based on Bayesian network 2015A fuzzy Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of oil and gas pipelines

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