This article analyses variations in the provision (breadth and depth) of skill formation through technical and vocational education (TVE) in secondary education in middle-income countries. A growing consensus blames productivity stagnation for the middle-income trap and advocates more human capital to boost productivity. Building on the extensive political economy literature of skill formation in developed economies, the article emphasises the importance of a more demand-side analysis of skill formation. Fragmentation of social groups in middle-income countries discourages the sorts of coalitions that pushed strong public investment in TVE in earlier developers. Brief analyses of exceptional TVE expansion in Chile, Turkey, and Malaysia suggest the importance of a more top-down dynamic led by strong parties and stable governments that compensated for weaker coalitions.
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