Analysing the causes of long-distance travel in Europe – a system dynamics approach

Abstract

Long-distance travel is growing in Europe. While it only accounts for around 3% of trips made, it contributes around a third of distance travelled and to the growing problem of carbon emissions. Despite this there has been little evidence on what causes growth in long-distance travel. This paper presents the LUNA model, a System Dynamics model of long-distance travel in Europe, able to analyse effects of both socio-demographic and transport policy scenarios. We present the development and calibration of the model and its application to three different scenarios based on recent EU evidence and policy. We show that socio-demographic assumptions play a significant role in the evolution of long-distance travel-related emissions. Transport policy tends to affect mode choice but only efficiency improvements contribute significantly to a reduction in emissions. Even quite strong policy change is not enough to meet the EU reduction targets by 2050.

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