Carbon dioxide emissions prediction of five Middle Eastern countries using artificial neural networks

Abstract

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emission has considerable impact on global warming and climate change. Since energy systems and their features noticeably influence on the amount of GHGs emission, it can be modeled based on the specifications of energy sources utilized by the countries. In addition, economic activity is another factor which should be considered in GHG emission modeling. In this work, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used for estimating carbon dioxide emission, as one of the most abundant GHGs, on the basis of shares of various energy sources used as primary energy supply and GDP as an indicator for economic activities. Five countries including Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) are considered as case studies. Comparing between the estimated data by the achieved model and actual quantities showed acceptable precision of the ANN model for prediction of carbon dioxide emission. The average absolute relative error and the R-squared values of the GMDH model are approximately 2.28% and 0.9998, respectively. The obtained values for the mentioned statistical criteria show the precision of the model in forecasting the emission of Co2.

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