Time-variant reliability analysis of a continuous system with strength deterioration based on subset simulation

Abstract

To conduct a reliability analysis for mechanical components, it is necessary to consider the combined influence of strength deterioration and dynamic loads. An efficient method based on subset simulation is proposed in this paper to analyze time-variant reliability by considering the strength deterioration of mechanical components in a continuous system. A gamma process is used to describe the deterioration of system strength. A model for time-variant reliability considering strength deterioration is constructed for a continuous system. A representative example and tubular cantilever structure are assessed to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. The reliability probability examples were analyzed using a first-order reliability method and benchmark results for the proposed method were derived using direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The results of the proposed method and MCS are consistent, indicating that the proposed method is an effective reliability analysis method for evaluating small failure probabilities in a continuous system subjected to strength deterioration and dynamic loads.

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