Article2019

The decline in China’s fertility level: a decomposition analysis

Quanbao Jiang · Shucai Yang · Shuzhuo Li · Marcus William Feldman

44 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Biosocial Science

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Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences Family Dynamics and Relationships Reproductive Health and Contraception

Abstract

Many factors have contributed to the decline in China's fertility level. Using China's population census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010, the present study investigates the factors causing the decline in China's fertility rate by decomposing changes in two fertility indices: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the net reproduction rate (NRR). The change in the TFR is decomposed into the change in the marital fertility rate (MFR) and the change in the proportion of married women (PMW). Four factors contribute to the change in the NRR. The following are the main findings. A drop in the MFR caused a decrease in the TFR and the NRR between 1989 and 2000. However, the change in MFR increased TFR and NRR between 2000 and 2010. Marriage postponement caused a decline in the fertility level between 1989 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010. The effect of the MFR and marriage postponement varied with age and region and also between urban and rural areas.

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References

2008The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe 2007China's Local and National Fertility Policies at the End of the Twentieth Century 2010China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?2011Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China 2017POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS 2009China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects 2015Fertility Intention, Son Preference, and Second Childbirth: Survey Findings from Shaanxi Province of China 2005How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?

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