Persistence is the tendency of speakers to repeat the choice of sociolinguistic variant they have recently made in conversational speech. A longstanding debate is whether this tendency toward repetitiveness reflects the direct influence of one outcome on the next instance of the variable, which I call sequential dependence, or the shared influence of shifting contextual factors on proximal instances of the variable, which I call baseline deflection. I propose that these distinct types of clustering make different predictions for sequences of variable observations that are longer than the typical prime-target pairs of typical corpus persistence studies. In corpus ING data from conversational speech, I show that there are two effects to be accounted for: an effect of how many times the /ing/ variant occurs in the 2, 3, or 4-token sequence prior to the target (regardless of order), and an effect of whether the immediately prior (1-back) token was /ing/. I then build a series of simulations involving Bernoulli trials at sequences of different probabilities that incorporate either a sequential dependence mechanism, a baseline deflection mechanism, or both. I argue that the model incorporating both baseline deflection and sequential dependence is best able to produce simulated data that shares the relevant properties of the corpus data, which is an encouraging outcome because we have independent reasons to expect both baseline deflection and sequential dependence to exist. I conclude that this exploratory analysis of longer sociolinguistic sequences reflects a promising direction for future research on the mechanisms involved in the production of sociolinguistic variation.
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