How adoption speed affects the evolution of fashion cycle

Abstract

Fashion style is an important component of social movement. The original intention of designer is to make the clothes both functional and fashionable. Previous research of fashion cycle mostly focus on fashion sales forecasting and fashion supply chain. But how certain fashion clothes evolved is rarely being investigated. By introducing survival analysis, this research finds that the adoption speed affects fashion evolution. In general, clothes experienced sharper increase in popularity tend to die faster. We believe that this is due to concerns about symbolic value: an unsuccessful case is perceived negatively, this is why consumers often avoid choosing the clothes with sharply increasing popularity because they would be unfashionable quickly. This may explain why certain clothes adopted quickly tend to be less successful. Correlation coefficients in statistics demonstrates fashion evolution or cycle to be long-term or short-term depending on the adoption speed. This finding illustrates the basic principle of fashion evolution and sheds the lights on one factor that may help understanding fashion consumption and thus guides the marketing effort.

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