A fuzzy synthetic evaluation analysis of time overrun risk factors in highway projects of terrorism-affected countries: the case of Pakistan

Abstract

Time overrun has detrimental effects on the performance of construction projects, especially highway projects which are associated with higher capital investment, complex stakeholder profile and longer construction duration. The effects are multiplied in terrorism-affected countries (TACs). However, there are limited studies on the time overrun risk factors (TRFs) in highway projects in the TACs. Consequently, this article examined TRFs in highway projects in the FATA region, a severe terrorism-affected province in Pakistan using a questionnaire survey. A fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) modelling of the TRFs showed that stakeholder interference and insecurity threats is the most critical factor grouping, followed by inexperienced contractors and unproductive workforce, ineffective project planning and contractual arrangement, and construction materials shortages and force majeure. These critical TRFs are important to practitioners and international construction companies because risks abound in highway projects in TACs and require prioritization. Thus, the critical TRFs could be used to develop a decision support system for managing the risks and improving the performance of highway projects in TACs.

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