Disaggregated determinants of aid: Development aid projects in the Philippines

Abstract

Abstract Motivation Across the world, rapid‐onset disasters caused by natural hazards such as storms and floods return with seemingly greater force every year. Many disaster hot spots are particularly vulnerable because of already fragile humanitarian and political situations, some having been affected by armed conflict for decades. These phenomena augment the need for long‐term aid, but do they influence the distribution of aid projects? Purpose This article revisits the long‐standing debate over whether donor interests or recipient needs best predict the distribution of development aid. It disaggregates the analysis down to province level in the Philippines, and includes local hazards when assessing an area’s need for aid. Approach and methods Making use of geocoded data on aid projects, rapid‐onset disasters caused by natural hazards and armed conflict in Philippine provinces between 1996 and 2012, this article provides an exhaustive assessment of the within‐country determinants of World Bank development aid projects. Findings The article finds that need to some extent influences the distribution of aid projects across Philippine provinces but that, in general, domestic political alliances bias projects in favour of the politically dominant group. Previous exposure to conflict is associated with increased likelihood of new projects, but only in dominant group‐majority provinces. While previous disaster exposure is a weak predictor of aid in all provinces, low Human Development Index (HDI) levels significantly predict aid inflow in excluded group‐majority provinces. Policy implications In sum, the article challenges the idea that (international) donors’ priorities override the interests of the recipient/local governmesnt in the distribution of aid projects. It also shows that even if the donor’s explicit policy is disaster mitigation and relief, there is still some way to go before these considerations are effectively incorporated into development aid efforts.

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