CONFIRMATION BIAS IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: A PEDAGOGICAL EXAMPLE

Abstract

One of the biases potentially affecting systems engineers is the confirmation bias, when instead of selecting the best hypothesis based on the data, people stick to the previously-selected hypothesis until it is disproved. In this paper, on a simple example, we show how important it is to take care of this bias: namely, that because of this bias, we need twice as many experiments to switch to a better hypothesis.

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