Regional effects of inflation targeting in Russia: Factors of heterogeneity and structural inflation rates

Abstract

Inflation targeting in Russia implies maintaining stable low inflation at a level of 4% throughout the country. The presence of structural factors in some regions can determine deviations from the all-Russian inflation, which can lead to different effects of monetary policy in Russian regions. In this paper, we analyze regional heterogeneity of inflation and factors of inflation deviations from the national average, estimate structural levels of inflation in the regions of Russian Federation. These estimates confirm the presence of some regional factors of inflation deviations from the all-Russian indicator, such as the difference in productivity growth of the tradable and non-tradable sectors (Balassa—Samuelson effect), effective exchange rates, real incomes and product stocks. In addition, our results confirm the presence of regions with price growth rate above and below monetary policy target. The results of this research can be used for the development of monetary and communication policies.

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