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Recent research (Pilditch, Fenton, & Lagnado, 2019) shows\nthat people are susceptible to zero-sum thinking in evidence\nevaluation, where they dismiss or underweight the probative\nvalue of evidence that is equally predicted by multiple\nindependent hypotheses. But such an assumption is only valid\nwhen explanations are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.\nThe present work extends these findings by looking at the\ncontext of information selection, and the decisional\nconsequences of the zero-sum fallacy. It uses an information\nmetric to quantify the cost of the error in terms of overlooked\ninformation.
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