When does ignorance make us smart? Additional factors guiding heuristic inference

Abstract

Fast & frugal" heuristics represent an appealing way of implementing bounded rationality and decision-making under pressure.The recognition heuristic is the simplest and most fundamental of these heuristics.Simulation and experimental studies have shown that this ignorance-driven heuristic inference can prove superior to knowledge based inference (Borges, Goldstein, Ortman & Gigerenzer, 1999;Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002) and have shown how the heuristic could develop from ACT-R's forgetting function (Schooler & Hertwig, 2005).Mathematical analyses also demonstrate that, under certain conditions, a "less-is-more effect" will always occur (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002).The further analyses presented in this paper show, however, that these conditions may constitute a special case and that the less-is-more effect in decision-making is subject to the moderating influence of the number of options to be considered and the framing of the question.

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