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Safety Assessment of Process Systems using Fuzzy Extended Bow Tie (FEBT) Model

Esmaeil Zarei · Mohammad Yazdi · Nima Khakzad · Genserik Reniers

14 citations0/0 files storedChemical engineering transactions

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Risk and Safety Analysis Structural Integrity and Reliability Analysis Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis

Abstract

Risk analysis in process systems is very important to design effective strategies for preventing and mitigating potential major accidents. Although conventional techniques as Bow-tie (BT) have widely been used in risk assessment of process systems, they fall short in effectively modelling epistemic uncertainty which is prevailing in risk assessment of process systems. The present study is aimed at alleviating this shortcoming by incorporating fuzzy set theory into BT, developing a so-called fuzzy extended Bow tie (FEBT) model. FEBT, compared with previous fuzzy BT methods, uses the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and thus provides a more accurate cause - consequence model of accident scenarios. A natural gas transmission network is used to demonstrate the application of FEBT.

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