The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine and quantify th e impact of demographic change on household savings, which is expected to take plac e in the following years in Turkey. Moreover, the effects of the increase in the share of people with college degree or mo re in adult population and the rise in labor force partic ipation rates on household savings are analyzed in this paper. Under the assumption that a change in the structure of population will be accompanied with rising labor force participation rates and in creasing ratio of college graduates, household saving ratio is projected to i ncrease by 7.61 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. The sole contribution of the change in the structure of population will be 1.91 percentage points, while the contributions of the increases in labor force participation rates and the share of college graduates are expect ed to be 1.45 and 4.59 percentage points, respectively. According to our empirical findings, t he expected increase in the ratio of college graduates has the h ighest impact on household savings among the factors taken into account. JEL D12, J11 OZ Bu calismanin amaci onumuzdeki yillarda Turkiye'nin nufus yapisinda gercekle smesi beklenen de gisimin hanehalki tasarruf oranlarini hangi yonde ve ne kadar etkileyece gini incelemektir. Ayrica, toplam nufus icinde universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerindeki etkileri ara stirilmaktadir. Nufus yapisindaki degisimin yani sira universite mezuniyeti ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin artacagi varsayimi altinda, hanehalki tasarruf oraninin 20 10 yilindan 2050 yilina kada r olan donemde 7,61 puan artaca gi tahmin edilmistir. Soz konusu artisin yakla sik 1,91 puanlik kisminin nufus yapisindaki degisimden, 1,45 puanlik kisminin isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinden ve 4,59 puanlik bolumunun ise universite mezunlarinin say isinin artmasindan kaynaklanacagi ongorulmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular universite mezunlarinin oraninin artmasinin hanehal ki tasarruflari uzerinde nufus yapisindaki de gisime ve isgucune katilim oraninin yukselmesine kiyasla daha y uksek katki sa gladigini ortaya cikarmistir.

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