Furor over the Fed: A President’s Tweets and Central Bank Independence

Antoine Camous · Dmitry Matveev

13 citations0/0 files storedCESifo Economic Studies

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

Abstract We illustrate how financial market data are informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about future monetary policy decisions. By relating price movements of these contracts with President Trump’s tweets on monetary policy, we explore how financial market participants have perceived attempts by the President to influence monetary policy decisions. Our results indicate that market participants expected the Federal Reserve Bank to adjust monetary policy in the direction suggested by President Trump. (JEL codes: E44, E52, and E58)

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2005What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?2004Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements 2013High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect 2018Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises: The Role of Information Shocks 2019Measuring euro area monetary policy 2008Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy 2013Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock Market 2017Monetary/Fiscal policy mix and agents' beliefs

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